President Musharraf and His Worrisome Concessions to Islamists

It is difficult to fathom the how and why of President Musharraf's caving to the ever growing threat of radical Islam in Pakistan. While Pakistan is a Muslim nation - and a nuclear armed one at that - it has never had a radical government, nor has radical Wahhabi / Salafi style Islam ever predominated except in parts of the NWFP and the Federally Administered Tribal Areas. Yet President Musharraf as much as ceded safe havens to Taliban and al Qaeda elements some time ago with his peace agreements. And now, predictably, radicals are making inroads throughout the NWFP and even into Pakistan proper, including the capital, Islamabad. Yet President Musharraf does not seem to be rising to meet the challenge. This from Dinah Lord:

Sharia, anyone In what can only be described as appeasment and concession the Pakistan government has agreed to accept all demands of the 'management' of the Lal Masjid or Red Mosque. Details are to be released to the Parliament today. What does that mean to the average Mo on the Pakistani street? It means the enforcement of sharia law.

The Pakistani Muslim League leader denied the presence of illegal activists (read jihadis) and ammunition in the mosque. This despite the report of massive amounts of arms and ammunition spotted by two security guards taken hostage by the group. This also runs counter to the frequent assertions made by President Musharraf that the mosque provided aid and comfort to SUICIDE BOMBERS. The Mosque denies this, of course.

. . . This does not bode well for President Musharraf and it appears that nuclear Pakistan is moving ever closer to having a radical muslim finger on the red button of the nuclear bomb.

Read the whole post here. And Bill Rogio has more background on the problem here.

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Amir Taheri on Politics, Pakistani Style

Amir Taheri weighs in on the choice immediately facing Pakistani President Musharraf - whether to rely on Islamist parties for support or to allow secular democratic opposition to rebuild:

AS NATO forces prepare to face a massive "spring offensive" by the Taliban in Afghanistan, policymakers may be ignoring a greater threat looming in Pakistan.

. . . But, while Afghanistan is vaccinated against Talibanization, Pakistan is not.

Islamist parties sympathetic to the Taliban already control the regional government in the Northwest Frontier, one of Pakistan's four provinces, and have a foothold in the administration of another, Balochistan. Of greater concern, however, is the heightened profile of Taliban-style groups in Punjab and Sind, two provinces that account for 80 percent of the country's population.

Two factors explain the rise of Taliban-style groups in Pakistan.

The first is President Pervez Musharraf's semi-official alliance with Islamist parties that, though not as radical as the Taliban, have worked hard to increase the role of religion in the nation's politics. By imposing religion as a measure of all things, they have enabled hard-line elements to pose as the sole true custodians of Islam.

The second factor is Musharraf's refusal to allow Pakistan's moderate parties to rebuild themselves under leaders of their choice. These parties were severely restricted, and their top leaders chased out of the country, when Musharraf seized power in a bloodless coup in 1999.

The elimination of the mainstream parties led to a paradoxical situation - in which a general who takes the secular Turkish republic as his model found himself allied to Islamists of various shades.

. . . Yet the Musharraf presidency is fast approaching a fork in the road. In one direction lies the path to tighter military rule backed by obscurantist religious parties ready to sacrifice political and social freedoms at the altar of a narrow vision of Islam. The other direction points to a genuine democratization that could immunize Pakistan against all forms of Talibanization.

The moment of choice will come later this year, when Pakistan is to hold a general election.

The question is whether Musharraf will allow the mainstream, non-Islamist parties to reorganize freely and enter the election with leaders of their own choice.

In recent weeks, several countries (including the United Sates, Britain and Saudi Arabia) have worked behind the scenes to broker a deal between Musharraf and party leaders in exile.

If my sources are right, an agreement is in the making between Musharraf and former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto.

As leader of the Pakistan People's Party (PPP), Bhutto is arguably the strongest democratic figure in her nation's politics. Last week's decision by a court to throw out trumped-up charges of corruption against her could facilitate her return from exile. And that is certain to boost the chances of mainstream forces defeating the Islamists in a straight electoral contest. . . .

Continue reading here.

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Taliban & Al Qaeda Taking the Fight -- To Pakistan

The New York Times is reporting that the Taliban and al Qaeda, operating from their safe havens in Waziristan of the North West Fronteir Province (NWFP), are behind several recent suicide attacks aimed at targets inside Pakistan. The attacks are apparently meant as reprisals for prior attacks by the government of Perez Musharraf and as a warning against taking any future action.

[I]n recent weeks the suicide bombers have turned on Pakistan itself, carrying out six attacks and killing 35 people. Militant leaders have threatened to unleash scores more, in effect opening a new front in their war.

Diplomats and concerned residents see the bombings as proof of a spreading “Talibanization,” as Pakistan’s president, Gen. Perez Musharraf, calls it, which has seeped into more settled districts of Pakistan from the tribal areas along the border, where the Taliban and Al Qaeda have made a home.

In Peshawar and other parts of North-West Frontier Province, which abuts the tribal areas, residents say English-language schools have received threats, schoolgirls have been warned to veil themselves, music is being banned and men are told not to shave their beards.

Then there is the mounting toll of the suicide bombings. One of the most lethal killed 15 people in Peshawar, most of them police officers, including the popular police chief.

The police, on the front line of the violence, have suffered most in many of the suicide attacks, diplomats and officials say. They are increasingly demoralized and cowed, allowing the militancy to spread still further, they warn.
. . . .
The creeping militancy has frustrated government agencies, who disagree over what to do about it, according to one intelligence official.

There is consensus that a large-scale military operation, like the kinds that have failed in recent years, is not the solution. But some diplomats say that the series of peace deals that the government struck with tribal leaders and militants in South and North Waziristan has not worked either.

For instance, according to another Western diplomat, General Musharraf knows the North Waziristan agreement is only 20 to 30 percent effective, but he continues to back it for lack of another plan.

The accord has brought some order to the area’s capital, Miram Shah, according to officials with knowledge of North Waziristan. It has also forced a split among the militants, with the more aggressive followers of Mr. Mehsud and their Qaeda allies congregating in the town of Mir Ali, they said.

Some officials are now arguing that the government should move against the militants in Mir Ali, while supporting the more reasonable ones.

Read the entire article here. I posted an editorial here from a Pakastani paper that dealt with the growing threat of Talibanization spreading its tentacles out from the NWFP into Pakistan proper, as well as another Pakistani editorial here on Musharraf's problems with the NWFP safe havens. Ultimately, neither Musharraf nor the United States and NATO can allow these Taliban and al Qaeda safe havens to exist. But for now, Musharraf must make some hard decisions of how to address the problem.

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Musharraf, the Taliban, & Few Good Choices

The Pakistani newspaper The International News, contains a very thorough and perceptive analysis of the problems facing General Musharraf as he tries to both support the coalition forces in their operations against the Taliban while simultaneously keeping closed the flood gates of anarchy in Pakistan:

If this spring is going to witness a bloodier battle between the Taliban and coalition forces, it is going to bring much greater fall out on Pakistan who does not have the means and capacity to secure such a long and porous border with Afghanistan and stop Taliban's movement on both sides. Facing the onslaught by the ISAF, Taliban are bound to retreat to their sanctuaries on both sides of the border forcing the Nato-led troops to hot pursuits across the Durand Line into Pakistan's tribal areas. This will further exacerbate the dilemma President Musharraf is facing: if he does the job himself, he alienates his own tribes; and if he lets the coalition forces do the killing on our territory he invites a big political backlash at home. And if the Taliban succeeds in causing greater casualties to the ISAF and expanding the insurgency to the broader regions with the support of the local people at the grassroots, the Musharraf government will be in trouble if it tries to go beyond its capacity to deliver what the coalition forces would fail to achieve.

Afghanistan is far bigger a quagmire than created by President Bush in Iraq. It can't be sorted out in a few years. Expecting quick results and victory by military means alone will be a big folly. In the meanwhile, Pakistan will have to clear its own deck. Let Islamabad clear all suspicions regarding its alleged soft corner for Taliban and persuade its own tribes to keep away from the fire the Taliban are igniting. And let General Musharraf clearly define his limits and scope of partnership in the war against terrorism. We don't have any option to clean up or neutralise our tribal areas. If we don't, others will do for us, even if we protest. The test is coming and it is too close now to the next general elections. A failure to do our job or partial success at a high cost will, in turn, expedite the change in the dynamics of political power in Pakistan which still faces a bigger challenge of whether it is going to become governable or not.

I highly recommend this article.

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Mullah Dadullah: The Taliban's Violent Commander

Der Spiegel has an ominous article on the new Taliban general, Mullah Dadullah, the reorganization of the Taliban in their Pakistani NWFP safe havens, and Dadullah's decision to invest heavily in suicide bombings.

Western intelligence agencies warn that the Taliban now have "their own star" in their struggle against Western soldiers and the Afghan government of President Hamid Karzai. The new nightmare from the Hindu Kush Mountains is called Mullah Dadullah. He sports a pitch black beard, always wears a military jacket and these days, he is omnipresent in the media.

Bloodthirsty propaganda is everywhere in northern Pakistan near the border with Afghanistan. Virtually every CD salesman in Peshawar is selling the latest films released by the Taliban leader. "Oh, you want the Dadullah tapes," says one. "They're very popular right now." He disappears for barely a minute and then returns with an entire stack. He charges about €3 ($4) per film. Those who buy several get a discount. But he doesn't want his picture taken. He says Pakistani police already causes him enough trouble when they find terror DVDs in the suitcases of journalists at the airport.

The images on these DVDs reveal the Taliban's self confidence and new professionalism. The films herald a bloody spring in Afghanistan, one in which Western troops will face a newly strengthened Taliban army under a re-organized leadership. Well armed and better logistically organized than ever before, the Taliban are preparing for their fight against the hated NATO troops, whose alliance has recently shown signs of internal division. "They say it will be the decisive summer," says a man who occasionally drinks tea with the Taliban commanders.

Read the whole article. There is only one way to defeat an enemy that will not surrender, and that is to take the offensive to to attack them wherever they are found. That means that the Taliban cannot be allowed a safe haven anywhere. Pakistan will either have to take control of the NWFP, or NATO will have to do it for them.

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CHENEY WARNS PAKISTAN ON TALIBAN AND AL QAEDA

Vice President Cheney travelled to Pakistan to express the U.S. concern with Pakistan's lack of aggressive efforts against radicals, including both the Taliban and al Qaeda who have established safe havens in Pakistan's Fronteir Provinces. See the story here.

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MUSHARRAF'S POLITICAL FUTURE. Pakistani politics may well be driving Musharraf away from the radicals and into a deal with the secular liberal party over the next year. That would be a plus.

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AL QAEDA SAFE HAVEN IN PAKISTAN. This from the NY Times:

Senior leaders of Al Qaeda operating from Pakistan have re-established significant control over their once-battered worldwide terror network and over the past year have set up a band of training camps in the tribal regions near the Afghan border, according to American intelligence and counterterrorism officials.

Allowing your enemy an untouchable safe haven is not a sound strategy. Gen. Pervez Musharraf, the Pakistani president, will at some point have to act, either by taking action himself or by giving the green light to US forces to attack both the Taliban and al Qaeda strongholds in the fronteir provinces which are only nominally under Pakastani control. But he has shown an ever increasing reticence to act over the past two years. Why that is so probably has as a lot to do with the internal dynamics of his hold on power in Pakistan as well a concern about the committment of the United States in seeing the war on terror through to a conclusion. -- a conclusion that will take more then one generation, it would seem.

Update: From the Telegraph (UK)

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