US Military Maximizing The Opportunity To Meet Allah

The combined arms combat power of the U.S. military, wielded by the most well trained soldiers on this earth, is a wonderful and terrifying thing indeed. And with it, the dynamic in Iraq has just changed 180 degrees. General Petraeus has wasted no time now that all promised troops for the surge are on the ground in Iraq. The mission has now changed from emphasizing the creation of static outposts in Baghdad to large scale offensive operations aimed primarilly at al Qaeda. And as previously predicted, the first big offensive is going into Diyala Province, now the home base of al Qaeda in Iraq. This today from the AP:

About 10,000 U.S. soldiers launched an offensive against al-Qaida in Iraq northeast of Baghdad early Tuesday, killing at least 22 insurgents, the U.S. military said.

The raids, dubbed "Operation Arrowhead Ripper," took place in Baqouba, the capital of Diyala province, and involved air assaults under the cover of darkness, the military said in a statement. The operation was still in its opening stages, it said.

On Monday, military officials said U.S. and Iraqi forces had launched attacks on Baghdad's northern and southern flanks to clear out Sunni insurgents, al-Qaida fighters and Shiite militiamen who had fled the capital and Anbar during a four-month-old security operation.

A top U.S. military official said American forces were taking advantage of the arrival of the final brigade of 30,000 additional U.S. troops to open concerted attacks.

"We are going into the areas that have been sanctuaries of al-Qaida and other extremists to take them on and weed them out, to help get the areas clear and to really take on al-Qaida," the senior official said on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak about the operation. "Those are areas in the belts around Baghdad, some parts in Anbar province and specifically Diyala province."

Al-Qaida has proven to be an extremely agile foe for U.S. and Iraqi forces, as shown by its ability to transfer major operations to Baqouba from Anbar province, the sprawling desert region in western Iraq. There is no guarantee that driving the organization out of current sanctuaries would prevent it from migrating to other regions to continue the fight.

The death toll in sectarian violence Monday skyrocketed after a brief period of relative peace. At least 111 people were killed or found dead nationwide, with 33 bodies of torture victims showing up in Baghdad alone.

Well to the south, Iraqi officials reported as many as 36 people were killed in fierce overnight fighting that began as British and Iraqi forces conducted house-to-house searches in Amarah, a stronghold of the Shiite Mahdi Army militia.

The U.S. military issued a statement that said at least 20 people were killed in clashes with coalition forces. A spokeswoman for Britain's Ministry of Defense said British soldiers played a supporting role to Iraqi security forces during the raid and fighting in Amarah. She spoke on condition of anonymity, which is ministry policy.

The operations on Baghdad's flanks were opened by the U.S. 3rd Infantry Division, which has taken over dangerous al-Qaida-infested regions to the south. The division began its drive into the Salman Pak and Arab Jabour districts on the city's southeastern fringe over the weekend.

At the time, ground forces commander Lt. Gen. Raymond Odierno said U.S. troops were heading into those areas in force for the first time in three years.

The military said in a statement Monday that fighter jets dropped "four precision-guided bombs" in support of 1,200 U.S. soldiers from the 3rd Infantry as they started moving on al-Qaida targets.

Military officials said Multi-National Division-North forces likewise were increasing pressure on al-Qaida sanctuaries northeast of the capital in the verdant orange and palm groves of Diyala, now one of the most fiercely contested regions in Iraq.

The province is a tangle of Shiite and Sunni villages that has played into the hands of al-Qaida and allied militants who have melted into the tense region and sought to inflame existing sectarian troubles.

Al-Qaida has conducted public executions in the Baqouba main square and otherwise sought to enforce an extreme Taliban-style Islamic code. The terror organization's actions in the province have caused some Sunni militants, al-Qaida's natural allies, to turn their guns on the group with American assistance and blessing. Some militant Shiites are likewise joining government forces in a bid to oust the foreign fighters and Muslim extremists.

Multi-National Division-Baghdad, which has run the security operation in the capital since it began on Feb. 14, has increased pressure on districts to the northwest of the city to cut supply and reinforcement lines from Ramadi, the capital of Anbar province, to the Baqouba region.

"We're focusing up in the northwest to apply force in an area that's been important to al-Qaida and its associates as they move between Ramadi and Baqouba. That work, together with the developing efforts to provide local security through the (Sunni) tribes in Abu Ghraib and Amariyah, is putting pressure on al-Qaida," said Lt. Col. Scott Bleichwehl, division spokesman.

Some Sunni tribes, which had fought with or offered sanctuary to al- Qaida in Anbar province, have risen up against the group and are now receiving arms and training from U.S. forces. American military officials are trying to spread that success to al-Qaida areas now under attack.

Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, a Shiite, told visiting Defense Secretary Robert Gates last week that the United States should stop arming Sunnis who may have been part of the insurgency, according to officials in his office. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to release the information. Al-Maliki repeated that position in a television interview in Baghdad on Monday. . . .

Read the entire story here. Just as a side note, while one cannot blame the AP author for speculating that driving al Qaeda out of Diyala will mean they just turn up somewhere else, it also shows that they lack a bit in the hold on reality department. Al Qaeda will never be able to take root and create the kind of destruction it has to this point without having support or acuquiesence of the local populace. The reason that al Qaeda has headed in large numbers to Diyala is because that support is no longer avaialbe to them in much of Baghdad and Anbar, but it was present in parts of Diyala. This is not whack-a-mole. It is much more akin to methodically cornering an animal, taking away their freedom of movement piece by piece. The available dens for al Qaeda are drying up save for the last - the one where you meet Allah and inquire whether all that stuff about 72 nubile virgins is real or not.

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News From The Surge - As It Begins In Earnest

Now with all five combat brigades on the ground, General Petraues tells us that the surge will begin in earnest, moving into al Qaeda positions in Diyala and in the belts surrounding Baghdad - the areas that were either long term al Qaeda strongholds or areas that al Qaeda has retreated to escape the offensives in Baghdad and and Anbar.

US Defence Secretary Robert Gates said Saturday that a troop surge in Iraq is only starting to have its full impact and that it is too soon to tell whether conditions will be ripe by September for decisions on US force levels.

The US commander in Iraq, General David Petraeus, said that the latest troop reinforcements to arrive in theatre had enabled the military to begin major operations against Al-Qaeda rear-bases outside the capital.

"While I indicated yesterday that I think we'll see some trends and be able to point in some directions by September, the full impact of the surge is really just beginning to be felt," Gates said.

. . . Petraeus and US ambassador Ryan Crocker are supposed to report to a sceptical Congress in September on whether the surge is working or whether an alternative strategy is needed.

Gates was to meet Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki later to press for more rapid progress by his Shiite-led government in reaching out to the disenchanted Sunni former elite.

He is the third senior US official to deliver the same message over the past week, following Deputy Defence Secretary John Negroponte, the former US ambassador, and Admiral William Fallon, commander of US forces in the Middle East.

"We are pressing hard on those (reconcilation benchmarks)," said the US ambassador, who joined Gates and Petraeus at a news conference.

"The Iraqi government has been pushing itself. The progress has been frustratingly slow.

"We will see where we are by September. We will report at that time honestly as to what has been achieved and what hasn't," said Crocker.

Gates, who visited troops at a joint security post in Baghdad, said there had been successes in reducing violence in Anbar province west of the capital, although security had deteriorated in Diyala province to its north.

"In terms of the security situation, as I say we've got two months, three months to go. There are some positive trends, there are some negative trends," he said.

Petraeus said it was possible to make progress over the next few months.

"And then we'll see how long we'll sustain the surge, and how long we can sustain the surge, because those considerations enter into it as well."

. . . US troops levels in Iraq swelled to 155,000 over the past week as the last of five additional combat brigades deployed, US commanders said.

Petraeus said "fairly large coordinated offensive operations" had been launched against Al-Qaeda in areas outside Baghdad in the previous 24 hours.

"We have been doing what we might be calling shaping operations in a lot of these areas, doing intelligence gathering, putting in some special operators, going in but then coming out," he said.

"And now for the first time are we going to some key areas in the belt from which Al-Qaeda has sallied forth with car bombs and additional fighters and so forth."

Read the entire story here.

The military is reporting on the results of several raids tied to the new offensive.

Iraqi and coalition forces captured one terrorist leader and killed 16 suspected terrorists today. Ten more insurgents died in fighting yesterday.

Coalition forces in Baghdad captured five suspected terrorists, including an alleged al Qaeda in Iraq emir whose organization includes a deadly car-bomb cell in the city, during two raids today. At one targeted location, coalition forces destroyed two vehicles used to transport explosives and personnel for the terrorist network.

An operation in Mosul killed one terrorist. Outside the targeted building, a man identified as Izz al-Din, also known as Abu Ahmad, drew a weapon on the approaching ground forces. Coalition forces engaged and killed him. One suspected terrorist was detained on scene for his involvement with Abu Ahmad.

Abu Ahmad was the head of five terrorist cells in Mosul and was responsible for directing attacks against Iraqi and coalition forces, U.S. officials said.

Yesterday, Multinational Division Baghdad troops killed 10 insurgents who had launched a series of roadside-bomb and small-arms-fire ambushes in the West Rashid district of southern Baghdad.

. . . Meanwhile, a number of raids have taken place involving the discovery and seizure of enemy munitions. In one raid yesterday, nine individuals were detained on suspicion of running a bomb-making cell in the east Doura neighborhood of Baghdad’s Rashid district.

. . . In other news, troops seized several caches on June 13. Baghdad troops teamed up with a platoon of Iraqi national police to conduct a raid in the eastern Sadr City district.

The troops discovered three complete 60 mm mortar systems, complete 82 mm and 120 mm mortar systems, four 120 mm mortar rounds, 32 60 mm mortar rounds, three 107 mm rockets, a rifle scope, two AK-47 rifles, two sets of body armor, and a variety of weapon manuals.

An air and ground assault took place on two houses in Salman Pak on June 13. The raids yielded two 107 mm rockets, homemade explosives, two AK-47 assault rifles, a bolt-action rifle, several propane tanks, copper wire, ammunition, magazines, and several assault vests.

In another raid, Iraqi troops and Baghdad soldiers raided a weapons cache in the Yarmouk neighborhood. The cache contained 113 landmines, 63 grenades, three rockets, three mortars, two gas masks, five washing machine timers, more than 2,000 rounds of AK-47 ammunition, and seven boxes of various electronics and other assorted explosives.

It is the largest weapons cache discovery by U.S. or Iraqi forces to date in the Yarmouk area, U.S. officials said.

Read the entire story here.

The increased operational tempo and chasing the rats down their holes is inevitably going to lead to more U.S. casualties.

The fight for security in Baghdad is likely to “get harder over the coming months as we engage an increasingly desperate enemy,” the deputy secretary of state said in Baghdad today.

John D. Negroponte, who served as U.S. ambassador to Iraq from 2004 until assuming his current post in February, spoke with reporters after two days of meetings in Iraq with senior U.S. and Iraqi leaders.

All recognize that as the Baghdad security plan reaches full stride with the last of the surge troops arriving this month, difficult days are likely to remain ahead, he said.

Read the entire story here. For most of us, this is the unfortunate cost of succeeding in any military conflict. For Harry Reid, it is twisted into a sign of American failure.

On a far more important note then Senator Reid, here is a fascinating briefing on Mental Health in the military:

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Jane Arraf Interviews General Petraeus

Jane Arraf of Iraqslogger had a short interview today with General Petraeus on May 15. His main points:

• "Petraeus . . . said he’d been shocked when he arrived back in Baghdad [for his current tour of duty] at some of the devestation caused [in 2006] by sectarian fighting unleashed by the attack on the Golden Mosque in Samarra last year."
  
  
• "[I]t is difficult to predict how well the surge of troops in Baghdad will succeed before the full number of troops arrive." They are expected in early June. And even then, it will take time to work the troops into the counterinsurgency plan and begin to see trends.
  
  
• "[T]here is "incremental progress being made on the ground in Baghdad,” as evidenced by the lack of car bombs in major markets that have seen large attacks in the past, and a dramatic improvement in security in Haifa Street, previously a haven for al-Qaeda.
  
  
• There has been “stunning progress” in Anbar where some of the fiercest fighting in Iraq has been quelled by tribes turning against al-Qaeda and allying themselves with Iraqi forces . . .

Read the entire story here.

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The Coming Battle for Diyala & The Sunni Revolt Against Al Qaeda

Between the counterinsurgency operation in Baghdad and the Sunni revolt in Anbar Province, al Qaeda has largely retreated into Diyala province northeast of Baghdad, where they are preparing for a defense along the lines of that executed by Hezbollah in the fight last year with the Israelis in Lebanon. The situation is hardly static. Sunnis in Diyala are beginning their own revolt against al Qaeda, and they are getting assistance from the Anbar Sunnis. This today from Bill Rogio:

Al Qaeda's campaign of murder and intimidation [in Diyala is] beginning to anger the tribes much as it did in Anbar province. Al Qaeda's establishment of its Islamic State of Iraq, with its capital in Baqubah made the province ripe for a major Coalition operation in the region. . . Today, the speculation has become a reality, as "Arab tribesmen in Baqubah have said they will form a tribal alliance to cleanse the Diyala province of foreign fighters and those of the al-Qaeda terrorist network in Iraq."

"Tribesman Sheikh Wameed al-Jabouri told al-Hayat that a number of tribes had signed a cooperation agreement to undertake this mission and to bring the city back to how 'it used to be,'" notes DPA. "The agreement could be considered "a national charter" that proves their rejection of the actions of the terrorist groups, al-Jabouri said."

. . . Diyala has become the main hub of al Qaeda's operations. Al Qaeda in Iraq made Baqubah the capital of its rump Islamic State of Iraq. Since the inception of the Baghdad Security Plan in mid-February, the security situation, which was deteriorating after U.S. forces pulled back last fall, has markedly worsened. Al Qaeda has prepared fighting positions, supply bases, IED traps, bomb rigged buildings, and training camps in the province.

Over 2,000 hardened al Qaeda fighters fled Baghdad and are operating in Diyala. An American intelligence official and a U.S. military officer informs us that al Qaeda is operating along the lines of Hezbollah's military structure in Lebanon. Recent al Qaeda attacks in the region bear this out. Al Qaeda is organized in small military units with infantry, mortars, anti-tank and anti-aircraft teams, as well as suicide and IED cells and the accompanying logistical nodes. Al Qaeda has been conducting a terror campaign to remove tribal leaders and others who oppose them, while waging a campaign of intimidation designed to cower the local population.

The U.S. and Iraqi security forces have preparing the battlefield in Diyala until the full compliment of U.S. forces are in theater and able to finish securing the Baghdad "belts" - the regions surrounding Baghdad. The Diyala Campaign is only is its opening phase, with U.S. and Iraqi forces conducting raids, search and destroy missions, establishing forward operating bases and logistic nodes in preparation for the full assault sometime early this summer. The establishment of the yet to be named Diyala Salvation Front is a crucial element to establishing local intelligence networks and an auxiliary force to hunt al Qaeda.

The influence of Sheikh Sattar al Rishawi and his Anbar Salvation Council cannot be underestimated in the formation of the anti al Qaeda tribal alliance in Diyala. The Anbar Salvation Council has been operating outside its provincial boundaries and has sent emissaries into Diyala, Salahadin, Niwena and other provinces in an effort to expand his anti al Qaeda Awakening movement nationwide.

Read the entire story here. If there is to be the type of progress needed to sustain operations beyond September, I suspect the operations in Diyala will have to commence in mid to late June and I expect it to be a particularly aggressive and bloody offensive. There are precious few areas left where al Qaeda can fall back in Iraq, and Diyala has the potential to be a decisive operation if the terrorists have no other option then to stand and fight. The chance for a decisive success will drastically increase if, as it seems, the Sunnis in Diyala turn on al Qaeda in Iraq and provide significent intelligence in advance of full scale operations.

And on a final note, the MSM has relatively silent for the past few days on operations in Iraq. That does not mean that we are not conducting operations. To the contrary, it appears that Task Force 145, the special ops folks. have been incredibly busy doing bad things to bad people. And in Baghdad, Iraqi security forces have captured some 86 suspected insurgents and killed one during raids in Baghdad. Read the story here. I posted earlier about the capture to kill ratio as an objective indicator of enemy morale. When you get in the 86 to 1 ratio, it makes me feel fairly sanguine about the real liklihood of success of the counterinsurgency.

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Time Is The Critical Commodity In Iraq

U.S. Commanders in Iraq are seeking time through the spring of next year to keep the surge in place, even as Democrats in Congress seek to end U.S. involvement in Iraq this summer, now proposing a two month package of poison pills. As to the military, the Washington Post reports today:

. . . "The surge needs to go through the beginning of next year for sure," said Lt. Gen. Raymond T. Odierno, the day-to-day commander for U.S. military operations in Iraq. The new requirement of up to 15-month tours for active-duty soldiers will allow the troop increase to last until spring, said Odierno, who favors keeping experienced forces in place for now.

"What I am trying to do is to get until April so we can decide whether to keep it going or not," he said in an interview in Baghdad last week. "Are we making progress? If we're not making any progress, we need to change our strategy. If we're making progress, then we need to make a decision on whether we continue to surge."

Pentagon spokesman Bryan Whitman said yesterday's announcement of the upcoming deployments [of 35,000 replacements] "is not a reflection on any decision with respect to the duration of the surge."

As the initial U.S. troop buildup in Baghdad nears its June completion, Odierno and other commanders offered details of how they will execute the military's new Iraq strategy, how they expect insurgents and militias to react, and political factors that will bear upon their success

. . . The main thrust of the military effort in the near term, Odierno said, is to position a critical mass of U.S. and Iraqi troops inside Baghdad to quell the violence that was spiraling out of control late last year. As currently planned, Baghdad will have 25 battalions of U.S. troops and 38 battalions of Iraqi soldiers and police when the increase is complete, he said.

The push to expand the U.S. and Iraqi presence in Baghdad's neighborhoods reflects what U.S. commanders now acknowledge was a mistaken drawdown in 2005 and 2006 of American troops in the capital, leaving Iraqi forces in their place.

. . . Another vital aspect of the strategy to secure Baghdad, commanders said, is to array more forces on the periphery of the capital to block Sunni insurgents and Shiite militiamen from using the outskirts for staging attacks.

"The Baghdad belts or support zones" have "always been the generator of violence in Baghdad," Odierno said. As a result, he plans to allocate about half of the final two incoming brigades in outlying areas.

Because Iraqi forces are concentrated inside the city, fewer are available to go to the outskirts to partner with U.S. troops, who must cover large areas, he said. In western Baghdad's Mansour district, for example, about 3,000 U.S. and Iraqi troops are covering an area with 300,000 people. "That's huge," said Lt. Col. Dale Kuehl, the U.S. commander for the area.

Still, the decision to place U.S. troops in both Baghdad and the outskirts has led to concern among some officers that their forces will be spread too thin. "If we lose Baghdad, it's game over," said one officer. "We need to concentrate forces in Baghdad and be really ruthless in accepting risk elsewhere," he said.

U.S. commanders said they expected Sunni and Shiite fighters to try to counter the Baghdad strategy in part by staging attacks in other regions.

"They will try to do whatever they can in other cities to draw us out of Baghdad" using vehicle bomb attacks, Odierno said. The Sunni extremist group al-Qaeda in Iraq, for example, might try to establish a base where there are fewer U.S. troops, such as the northern city of Mosul, he said. "We are watching that very closely."

Al-Qaeda in Iraq fighters have recently staged attacks in the predominantly Shiite southern cities of Karbala and Najaf, prompting U.S. and Iraqi officials to launch an assessment of whether the Iraqi police and army have the capability they need to protect the Shiite shrines there, as well as in Samarra and Baghdad, Odierno said.

Diyala province, a demographically mixed area between Baghdad and Iran, has already experienced an upsurge in violence following what Odierno said was in influx in recent months of Shiite militiamen from Baghdad and al-Qaeda in Iraq fighters from Anbar province, a Sunni stronghold in the west of the country. The U.S. military had to dispatch an additional battalion to Diyala, and Odierno said he is considering sending another.

In Anbar, meanwhile, violence has dropped dramatically in recent months because of the cooperation of local tribes -- a trend that could allow for a smaller U.S. presence there in the future, Odierno said. "We have less attacks in Anbar than in any other region," he said.

In Baghdad, sectarian killings have fallen dramatically since January, while suicide bombings using vehicles have increased. Overall, attack patterns varied in different parts of Baghdad. For example, in Mansour to the west, extrajudicial killings fell in February only to increase again by April, while other attacks remained on average the same. In the Rasafa district of central Baghdad, weekly attacks went from 88 in January to 25 in February but are now at about 60. . . .

Read the entire story here.

As to the poison pills of the Congress and the push to get a decisive vote to surrender and retreat from Iraq in two months, the Washington Post reports:

A House Democratic proposal introduced yesterday that would give President Bush half of the money he has requested for the war effort, with a vote in July on whether to approve the rest, hinges on progress in meeting political benchmarks that Iraq has thus far found difficult to achieve.

The House measure, which could come to a vote as early as tomorrow, would substantially raise the pressure on Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's government to meet lagging commitments -- including new laws on oil revenue and de-Baathification, constitutional revisions, provincial elections and the demobilization of militias -- that Bush has said are crucial to the success of the U.S. military strategy.

The plan would make about $43 billion of the administration's requested $95.5 billion immediately available to fund the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, train troops from both nations and pay for other military needs. Congress's approval of the rest, intended to last through September, would await Iraqi passage of restructuring laws, or Bush's ability to prove that significant progress had been made. The July vote would mark the first time a mandatory funding cutoff would come before Congress.

Most of the anticipated Iraqi changes are locked in disputes among and within regional and sectarian groups, and some have moved further from agreement in recent weeks. A deadline of next Tuesday for presenting a constitutional revision package to the Iraqi Parliament is likely to be only partially met, Bush administration officials said. A group of oil and gas laws due by the end of the month remains mired in debate.

Administration officials also acknowledge there has been no progress on a de-Baathification law that would permit former members of Saddam Hussein's ruling party -- most of them Sunnis -- greater access to government and security jobs, or toward disarming and demobilizing Shiite militias.

Delays and setbacks in promulgating the restructuring legislation, let alone passing and implementing it, was a major subject at last week's "neighbors conference" on Iraq held in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt. As Iraq's Sunni Arab neighbors sharply questioned the commitment of the Maliki government, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice recognized the slow progress and pleaded for patience and help: "If Iraq fails to achieve these goals of stability and democracy, we will all pay." Most of the Arabs dislike Maliki and consider him a pawn of Iran's Shiite rulers.

The administration has set September as an informal deadline for proving that the increase in U.S. troops and new security strategy are succeeding. But making the funding contingent on votes in the Iraqi parliament sets a much clearer standard for progress than the benchmark of improved security.

. . . In the meantime, "we're not willing to sit by like potted palms doing nothing," Obey told reporters yesterday. He presented the July cutoff plan to the Democratic caucus yesterday, and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) said it could be brought to the floor as early as tomorrow.

. . . The Senate is not expected to take the same short-term funding approach, but it is likely to make political benchmarks the centerpiece of its own legislation, with consequences if they are not met.

Administration officials, while conceding Iraqi delays, described the Democrats' proposals as dangerous, and even worse than the "redeployment" conditions in the vetoed bill. "Now we're in Excedrin headache No. 1," a State Department official said. "How do you fight a war two months at a time?"

Calling the Democrats' action a "moral hazard," the official said, "Okay, let's pass a law saying no more funding past July 31 if the [oil] package of laws doesn't pass. What do you suppose happens next? If I was sitting in a neighboring country, really looking forward to saying bye-bye to the Americans, you've just shown me a way to do it."

Strong diplomatic pressure is already being applied on the Maliki government, a senior administration official said, and mandating political reforms by a certain date would drive Iraqis further apart. "It allows extremist factions to say that these legislative benchmarks, which were an Iraqi political agenda, is an American agenda," the official said.

"If you say the next two months are make or break, I think I can predict what we'll see," the official said. "We will see a sustained trend of suicide attacks" by al-Qaeda in Iraq and other Sunni extremists, making the Shiite-led government even less willing to move on de-Baathification.

"It's a really harmful approach," the official said. "There is a risk you can push [the Iraqi government] off a cliff."

. . . Iraq's Sunni leaders agreed to the hastily written 2005 constitution, which most saw as favoring the Kurds, only on the condition that it include plans for amendments. A parliamentary committee has been working on the changes for months but is unlikely to finish by next Tuesday's deadline. On Monday, Iraq's top Sunni leader, Vice President Tariq al-Hashimi, told CNN that he would pull his bloc out of the unity government if key amendments are not completed. Kurdish leaders have said they will oppose provisions that diminish their autonomy, and they have objected to proposals in the draft oil package.

"I think they will have made some headway by September," said Nicholas Haysom, who heads the political division of the United Nations Mission for Iraq. "But we would also acknowledge the possibility that the political process may end up being even more divisive" by then.

Read the sad tale here.

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Video Updates to the Surge

These are some of the videos coming out of the surge posted by MNF-Iraq:

IED Factory Inspected Then Retired





U.S. Troops Aid Iraqis After a suicide bomb attack




Baghdad Soft Knock Search




Fighting in Baqubah




Battle On Haifa St in Baghdad

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And Now We Know

Of the four bombings that Al Qaeda in Iraq conducted last Wednesday, one was limited by the actions of Iraqi policeman at a checkpoint. The policemen, at least five of whom paid with their lives, did not allow an Al Qaeda in Iraq suicide bomber to enter Sadr City. As to the other three bombs, I speculated in my post last Wednesday (linked above) that:

a. the largest of these bombs, the one targeted at Sadriyah Market, had either been detonated inside the concrete defenses that should have been emplaced as a part of Operation Safe Market or that the bomb was possibly so large as to have rendered the defenses unworkable; and

b. the other two bombs, both of which resulted in very few casualties, may well have been as a result of the defenses put in place as part of the surge.

Today, there is confirmation on both issues from a Washington Post story:

"That's part of the concrete caterpillar," Petraeus said, pointing out a barrier going up in a neighborhood in west Baghdad. "That market was shut completely down when I took command -- now it has 200 shops," he said.

The walls helped divert the multiple car bombs in Baghdad on Wednesday that killed more than 170 people. Three exploded short of their targets, but the fourth and deadliest vehicle bomber was able to enter a market because someone had removed part of the barrier to gain easier access, U.S. officials said.

Those are the four car bombs that Give 'Em Surrender Harry used as justification to prove that the surge has failed. Actually, only one of the bombs succeeded in its reaching its target - the Sadriyah Market. Now we know Al Qaeda in Iraq was able to explode a bomb there because of negligence. It is incumbent upon the Iraqi police, as well as the U.S. and Iraqi forces in Baghdad, to police the barricades around the reopened markets, and it is incumbent upon the Iraqi people to scream at the top of their lungs if they see a breech in the barricades. The former is a matter of going back and identifying the party with responsiblity for policing that particular barricade. The latter is a matter of educating the public to take a bigger role in their own defense. Neither is an indicator that the surge has failed or that the strategy of the plan is flawed. Rather, they are indicators of a failure during the surge that needs to be addressed.

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More Surge News

Give Em Surrender Harry Reid's claim - that the four al Qaeda in Iraq suicide bombers who blew themselves up in Baghdad Wednesday were proof that the surge has failed - is disingenuous at best. The truth is that Al Qaeda in Iraq is under tremendous pressure on two fronts. Al Qaeda is under attack in Anbar, fighting not only U.S. soldiers, but also their former Sunni hosts. And many of the al Qaeda that were in Baghdad, at least those who have not already fallen to the surge, have now largely fled to Diyala province. Diyala is an area that the U.S. intends to target as a part of the surge once all forces are on the ground. This is not a failure, nor is it Biden's water balloon theory in action. It is a textbook counterinsurgency operation.

Max Boot at the Weekly Standard has an excellent article covering his most recent trip to Iraq. He addresses Baghdad and his conversations with General Petraeus, as well as the state of hostilities in Anbar and Diyala Province. His assessment, thre are a lot of problems, but there have been substantial gains. The surge is quite viable. Take note, Give 'Em Surrender Harry.

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The Bane of the Surge

While the first two months of the surge have been successful, Al Qaeda in Iraq and its associated elements have now started a surge of their own. They may no longer own and operate the neighborhoods of Baghdad as their own mini medieval caliphates, but they can still drive into the Baghdad with large bombs to slaughter innocents, all with religous zealotry, and all making a profanity of their religion.

And so they did today - four bombings that occurred at different areas of Baghdad.

In accordance with the Baghdad security plan, Iraqi police have set up checkpoints at key areas throughout the city, one of which was at an entrance to Sadr City. And that checkpoint functioned appropriately today. It stopped a suicide bomber from entering Sadr City in the first bombing of the day -- the bomber detonated at the checkpoint itself. But part of the problem with checkpoints are that they stop and back up traffic - thus making the checkpoint itself a target rich environment for these animals. Though the police at the checkpoint succeeded in stopping the suicide bomber from entering Sadr City and causing untold damage and slaughter there, the butchers bill from the bomb was still significant. The bomb destroyed at least eight cars stopped by the checkpoint, killing 30, 5 of whom were Iraqi police, and injuring another 40.

The second bombing was much worse. Apparently a truck rigged with explosives was parked in the vicinity of the largest market in Baghdad, the Sadriyah Market in central Baghdad. A special security plan, dubbed Operation Safe Markets, calls for Baghdad's markets to be protected by creating a buffer zone with concrete barricades, keeping vehicles a safe distance away. Either the plan failed in this instance, or the bomb was so large that it was still able to do its damage despite the distance to the market. The total dead at this point is 84, with 94 wounded.

The other two bombings had much less effect, though we don't yet know enough facts to tell if this was due in any part to the security plan. "Other bombings, near a hospital in the central Baghdad area of Karrada and in a minibus in the northwest area of Risafi, killed at least 15."

Read the article here. These vehicle bombings are the bane of the surge, which has been very successful to date in driving al Qaeda and such organizations out of Baghdad. And the surge is generating a trememndous windfall of tips and intelligence from Baghdad residents who are coming to trust the soldiers now living among them.

How can this vehicle suicide bombing problem be resolved? Al Qaeda in Iraq and its related organizations are under pressure now, in Baghdad and in their former base of Anbar. Nonetheless, they obviously still occupy areas where vehicles can be safely brought and rigged for explosion, where a suicide bomber can be linked with a vehicle, and from where such vehicle can then be driven into Baghdad.

The default scenario is that we will not be able to stop such bombings until Al Qaeda in Iraq and its related organizations are substantively defeated in Iraq. I am unaware of any high tech solution that would allow vehicles to be scanned for explosives and precursor chemicals - nor any that would allow such vehicles to be identified absent stops and checkpoints.

To understand more about this, at Global Terror Alert, you will find a link to a video approximately half way down the page entitled "Al Qaeda's Convoy of Martyrs in Iraq." Three minutes into the video, it shows a "Saudi national, Abul-Abbas al-Jeddawi, [who] shows off an explosives-packed suicide car bomb and explains jubilantly, "At the end [of the wire], you can see the button which I will press on my way to paradise." Looking at the tape gives an idea of how the vehicle bombs are configured. In that instance, explosives occupy a goodly portion of the floor in the front of the car. Although it does not show it, other vehicle bombs that I have seen configured also have the trunk stuffed with explosives.

One thought is to require all non-governmental vehicles to remove their doors and trunk lids, and remove the spare tire from the wheel well. If you have ever ridden in an old army jeep, you will know that it is an open vehicle without doors or roof. Riding in such a vehicle is not that problematic - though it does become a bit dirty and dusty - and it would make it much easier to determine which vehicles to be concerned with - i.e., those carrying items under opaque coverings. The same could, to the extent possible, be done with trucks. It would also allow checkpoints to be more efficient and back up less traffic. If anyone has more practical solutions - or if you think this idea too impractical - please feel free to comment.

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The Surge, Al Qaeda, & The Dems Disconnect

Rich Lowry has an insightful opinion piece in today's New York Sun pointing out the obvious (which, as often happens, had completely bypassed me). The Democratic talk of civil war in Iraq is kind of tough to sustain as this point, since only one side seems to be showing up for it. The Shia are gone to ground. Al Qaeda in Iraq, according to captured documents, intends to contest security operations in Baghdad. Most of the Democrats who decry the surge nonetheless still say that we should be fighting against Al Qaeda in counterinsurgency operations. Hmmm, are you starting to see the disconnect between what the Dems say they want, what is happening on the ground, and their current effort to pull the rug out from under everything with their coalition of the bribed. Read the article here.

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The Surge: Cause & Effect

This based on an interview by author and retired soldier, Gordon Cucullu, of General Petraeus in Iraq:

Cause – U.S. and Iraqi soldiers permanently manning small unit positions throughout Baghdad and then going through each house in the neighborhood using the "soft knock" – not breaking down doors or forcing entry; but asking to be let in.

Effect – There has been a significant change in trust and attitudes towards the U.S. and Iraqi forces. "Once the people know we are going to be around," – intelligence tips have gone from trickle to fire hose. The forces in Baghdad are now in "information overload."

Effect – According to General Petraeus,"Less than half the al Qaeda leaders who were in Baghdad when this [surge] campaign began are still in the city. They have fled or are being killed or captured. We are attriting them at a fearsome rate." I do not know precisely what a "fearsome rate" translates into in actual numbers – but it sounds absolutely great, doesn’t it.


Cause – From their local bases, the U.S. and Iraqi soldiers have conducted "Operation Safe Markets" to secure gathering places like mosques and marketplaces, including through the use of concrete highway barriers around the vulnerable targets."

Effect – According to General Petraeus, "Car bombings have dropped precipitately - the limited access thwarts them." What is precipitately? I do not know, we will wait for the numbers to come out shortly. The one thing I am sure of, the numbers are not going to support the New York Times thesis of the other day that car bombings are actually thwarting the surge.

Effect: "The marketplaces, including the book market that was targeted for an especially vicious attack, are rebuilding and doing great business. It is helping the local economy enormously to have this kind of protection in place." With jobs plentiful and demand growing, the appeal of militia armies declines proportionally.


Cause: The Rules of Engagement (ROE) that tell our soldiers in what circumstances they can engage the enemy, and in what circumstances they must withhold fire, have been changed and made simpler by General Petraeus.

Rules of engagement (ROE), highly criticized as being too restrictive and sometimes endangering our troops, have been "clarified." "There were unintended consequences with ROE for too long," Petraeus acknowledged. Because of what junior leaders perceived as too harsh punishment meted out to troops acting in the heat of battle, the ROE issued from the top commanders were second-guessed and made more restrictive by some on the ground. The end result was unnecessary - even harmful - restrictions placed on the troops in contact with the enemy.

"I've made two things clear," Petraeus emphasized: "My ROE may not be modified with supplemental guidance lower down. And I've written a letter to all Coalition forces saying 'your chain-of-command will stay with you.' I think that solved the issue."

Effect: There is no way to quantify this. But, as a former infantry company commander, I can promise you that this will improve the morale of all soldiers from private on up and that it will translate into more aggressive and effective action by our soldiers.


As to Anbar Province, the situation is clarifying. The Sunnis in Anbar, who have been since the start of the Iraq war, provided a home base for al Qaeda and Baathist militants, appear to "have had enough."

Not only are the al Qaeda fighters causing civil disruption by fomenting sectarian violence and killing civilians, but on a more prosaic but practical side, al Qaeda is bad for business. "All of the sheiks up there are businessmen," Petraeus said. "They are entrepreneurial and involved in scores of different businesses. The presence of the foreign fighters is hitting them hard in the pocketbook and they are tired of it."

A large hospital project - meant to be one of the largest in the Sunni Triangle - had been put on hold by terrorist attacks when al Qaeda had control of the area. Now it's back on track. So are similar infrastructure projects.

The sheiks have seen that the al Qaeda delivers only violence and misery. They are throwing their lot in with the new government - for example, encouraging their young men to join the Iraqi police force and army. (They are responding in droves.) Petraeus has his troops applying a similar formula in Baghdad's Sadr City.

Read the entire article here. All of this is wonderful news. Given time and the resources necessary to do his job, it may well be that General Petraeus is to the Iraq War what Grant was to the Union Army during the Civil War – the right general, applying the right strategy, at precisely the right moment in history. We can only hope.

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Symbolism From The Surge

Occasional symbolic acts are important. Today we have Prime Minister al Maliki leaving Baghdad's green zone and travelling to Ramadi in Anbar Province to visit with the Sunni Governor and tribal leaders. Read the whole story here.

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Taheri on the Generals Behind the Surge

Iranian journalist Amir Taheri has an article out today discussing the promising signs of the surge and his belief that the two generals most capable of making the surge a success are there in command -- LTG David Petreaus and his counterpart MG Abboud Qanbar, the Iraqi commander in Baghdad. Read the whole story here.

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At the End of Week 3, News From the Surge Continues to Improve

Mohammed, the author of the blog Iraq the Model, himself a Sunni resident of Baghdad, reports on the changes he is personally observing in Baghdad as a result of the surge.

. . . Operation “Imposing Law” is an escalating effort with military and political components. After the troops fixed their feet on the streets of Baghdad, PM Maliki and the troops are pushing forward with both components.

Politically, Maliki put an end to speculations about his real intentions of a cabinet reshuffle and announced that the reshuffle is going to happen within two weeks from now.In his press conference this morning, Maliki also announced that the Supreme Judicial Council will be issuing warrants against a number of politicians and members of parliament who have connections to militant groups that are involved in attacks on civilians and security forces.

Meanwhile Iraqi and American forces are increasing their presence in and around Sadr city. Today hundreds of American and Iraqi solders swept through Jamila district just north of Sadr city. They searched homes and shops without meeting any resistance.

The Mehdi army is not responding to the raids with fire, but they are trying to undermine the security plan by spreading rumors about alleged crimes committed by US soldiers, specifically against the Shia. . . .

Violent incidents are still decreasing in number and impact in Baghdad. Yesterday for instance the only reported incident was the abduction of an adviser to the minister of defense by gunmen in western Baghdad. It was less than 24 hours until the security forces succeeded in freeing the abducted general and arresting 4 of his captors.. . .

Other law enforcement officials are also getting more serious in doing their job. Traffic cops who would normally stop a suspicious vehicle only if it passed by their post are now riding their motorbikes and chasing suspected vehicles down highways and other streets.This is an indication that Imposing Law does not mean only sending soldiers to kill terrorists. It is reaching out to deal with other aspects of mess and to counter relatively “benign” violations-like breaking the “odd and even” traffic rule, defensive irregular roadblocks and unlicensed kiosks and stalls-by providing protection for the personnel of civilian departments while they do their job.

This is all exceptional news. Please see the entire post here.

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Surge News: At the End of Week 2

Baghdadi resident Omar, the Sunni publisher of Iraq the Model, brings us news on the surge. As he states, the news is hardly perfect -- there are still the al Qaeda suicide bombers coming into Baghdad. But other then that, there are many promising signs.

Operation “Imposing Law” continues in Baghdad. In contrast with previous operations to secure the city, this one is managing to not only keep the initial momentum, but the operation’s effects seem to be growing as well.

. . . .
As we noted in earlier reports, we feel safer about moving around in the city now than we did a month before. I have recently been to districts in Baghdad where a month or two ago I wouldn’t have thought of going to. In the last week or two I’ve showed my ID to soldiers and policemen in checkpoints dozens of times. A few months ago this was considered an extremely risky thing to do — especially for someone whose ID shows a name and profession such as mine. “Omar” is a pure Sunni name and everyone here knows that scores of young Baghdadi men were killed by death squads just because they had the name.

Numbers are always useful in assessing results of any effort, and the numbers so far are on the good guys’ side. I read today that the count of various death squads’ victims for this month is one half that of January, and little more than one third that of December of last year. This comes from the official figures reported by the Baghdad morgue.

The other number that’s become one of the important parameters for assessing the situation in the Baghdad is the number of displaced families that have returned to their homes since the beginning of Operation “Imposing Law.” This one too is giving a positive sign. The last official count by the authorities brought the total to little over 1,020 families in just two weeks according to Baghdad paper al-Mada.

While many Iraqi families are returning to the homes they once were forced to leave, there are also Baghdadis who are reopening their stores, ending the months they spent out of business because of violence and intimidation. Some streets that were virtually deserted a few months ago are slowly showing signs of returning to life.
The reopening stores even include some liquor shops! There are two stores on one street that I used to shop that closed early last year when their owners received death threats from the insurgents and the militias. Yesterday I walked through that street and, to my amazement, I found both stores open and back in business.
. . . .
The results of Operation “Imposing Law” are not magical. We didn’t expect them to be magical. The commanders didn’t claim they’d be when the Operation began. Still these latest developments are certainly promising. And let’s not forget that what has been achieved so far was achieved while many thousands of the new troops assigned to Baghdad are yet to arrive.

Read the whole post here. Would someone please pass this information on to Pelosi and Murtha before they manage to pull a defeat from the jaws of victory.

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WASHINGTON POST SPINNING LEFT

The surge is on -- for the U.S. and Iraqi military. The anti-surge is on for the Washington Post. They are burying the hard news on the surge -- which happens to be favorable. Moreover, they are trumpeting a poll as front page news -- and the poll is suspect.

The strategy of the surge is very clear. The goal of course is to significantly improve the security situation in Baghdad. To this end, we are moving Iraqi military units, each supported by a battalion or more of U.S. combat troops, into ten areas of the city and taking up permanent positions. It is a strategy that is 180 degrees from what we've done previously, where the goal was to minimize U.S. footprint.

How the surge will work is two fold. The presence of troops within cantonment areas throughout the city will have a much higher profile, making insurgents and militias act much more circumspect. Two, it will provide much more daily interaction with citizens for both Iraqi and U.S. soldiers with the goal of earning the citizen's trust -- and it is tips from those citizens that will ultimately allow the surge to succeed in cleaning up Baghdad. Both of those things will take time to bear significant fruit, but some of the impact has been immediate and promising.

This is from the lead article today in the WP, penned by Joshua Partlow:

At the end of the first week of the security crackdown, Caldwell announced, without providing statistics, a "very significant" decrease in such sectarian violence, while cautioning that it was premature to judge the plan's success.

Death tolls in February provided by an official at the Baghdad morgue, who is not authorized to speak publicly, appear to support Caldwell's statement. The official said that from Feb. 1 to Feb. 13, the bodies of 806 people who died as a result of violence were brought to the morgue, including 211 unidentified bodies, many of them bound, shot and showing signs of torture. Over the next nine days, 244 bodies were brought in, among them 58 unidentified corpses.

But there is still a bunker mentality among residents of the capital, who are afraid to venture out for any but the most necessary errands. The owner of a deserted fabric shop in Baghdad's Zayuna neighborhood, Manaf Ali, said his children continue to attend school only once a week because he is afraid for their lives. A goldsmith working next door at al-Faiq shopping center, Haider Mohammed, 31, sleeps on the floor of an unfurnished apartment close to his shop rather than travel to work from his embattled Sunni neighborhood of Adhamiyah. Both men carry guns.

"How can we notice any change in the streets? We are just like chickens, staying in our cages," Mohammed said. "I am a goldsmith. What am I doing carrying a gun?"

To Ali, 41, there are only small signs of increased order. He welcomes the presence of more soldiers on the streets, and sees fewer Shiite militiamen. "Thank God now the mass abductions and the militias seem to be slowing down, and we are only left with
the suicide bombs and car bombs," he said.

Along Palestine Street, a once vibrant commercial district, shop owners were relieved not by the greater military presence, but by the absence of Mahdi Army militiamen from neighboring Sadr City, the impoverished Shiite district and militia stronghold. The owner of a photography studio, a Sunni, pulled from his wallet a receipt for the "tax" that militiamen extract from merchants for their protection. Another merchant said he, too, faced extortion, which costs the equivalent of $30 a month. This month, the "savages" have not been around to collect, said the studio owner, who would not allow his name to be published.

"There needs to be raids against the militias, and not only in Sadr City," said Ahmed Abdul Rahman, 29, who works in an art gallery on Palestine Street. "Until then, this is not real."

Now that is the real news on the surge. For the first week of the surge, I would deem that news to be very promising. But if you read Mr. Partlow's actual article, you will not find these paragraphs until the very end, and only after a very long winded discussion of all the difficulties and negatives of both the surge and of the Iraqi units involved. In other words, this was either the author or an editor doing their best to minimize the solid news.

Lest you think me overly critical, the Washington Post front page companion piece is that of a poll of 1,000 people that they interpret as showing that the American people support, by a substantial margin, Democratic efforts "to handle Iraq." If that were true, we would already have a bill in Congress to defund the war. This poll is very suspect. The WP does not tell us the political persuasion of those polled, nor what adjustments to the poll were made. In other words, this poll has 0 credibility.

My own rule number 1 -- Polls, always subject to manipulation -- particularly those on highly charged topics -- ARE NOT NEWS. God forbid we should ever govern by polls.

What we see here is the Washington Post spinning like a top to the left side of the aisle.

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AN IRAQI BLOGS FROM BAGHDAD ON THE SURGE

Mohammed, the creator of Iraq the Model, gives us his inavlauable eye witness reports on the surge . . .

Operation Baghdad: Week II

It's been less than two weeks since the Baghdad operation was officially launched. This period, though short, has been full of events; both good and bad ones.Here we are not in a rush to judge the operation unlike some media or politicians who seek anything they can use to serve their agendas. We, Baghdadis, only want this operation to succeed . . .


. . . Military wise the spokesman for the operation said the first week left 42 militants killed and over 250 militants and suspects captured and good amounts of weapons and munitions were found. The troops had also defused 13 car bombs and many IED's.

The best part of the results remains the return of displaced families to their homes; the latest count for this shows that more than 600 families have returned so far. While the return went with little problems for most families some forty families are complaining about receiving new threats from terrorists immediately after they returned to al-Adl district. More occupied mosques are also being returned to their original keepers and earlier today Sunni and Shia worshippers gathered to hold joint prayers in several places in Baghdad as we saw on TV.

Last week, Maliki made his first public appearance on the streets of Baghdad when he visited the area of Palestine Street in Resafa the day that followed the bombings in the New Baghdad district. The same day general Aboud Qanbar, the commander of the operation walked in Haifa Street. These public appearances are apparently part of a PR campaign to show that senior officials are not afraid of leaving the green zone anymore, and frankly this has left a good impression among the public. . . .

Do please read the whole story.

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IN THE SURGE, GENERAL ASKS FOR PATIENCE

From LTG Odierno in Iraq:

. . . the Iraqi government is just 10 months old and is working to put its institutions in order while fighting a war. The stepped-up security operation under way in Baghdad reflects the importance of securing the Iraqi capital to the overall effort in the country, Odierno told reporters. “Baghdad is key to stability in Iraq,” he said.

He said Operation Fard al-Qanun – Enforcing the Law –already is paying off. U.S. troops are arriving in the city, and two brigades of Iraqi troops have already arrived. With four more battalions of Iraqi forces due in Baghdad in the next four weeks, the government will have lived up to its pledge, he said. The idea behind the operation is to give the government enough breathing room to reach out and prove to the people of Iraq that the government “is able to protect all its citizens regardless of sect or ethnicity,” . . .

Read the whole story

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SUCCESSES FROM THE FIRST WEEK OF THE SURGE.

“There has been a significant reduction in sectarian incidents and in ex-judicial killings in Baghdad,” Army Maj. Gen. William Caldwell, a Multinational Force Iraq spokesman, told reporters via satellite connection from a news conference in Iraq.

Read the whole story. Why isin't this even making it onto the MSM?

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SOMEBODY TELL REID AND PELOSI as well as all the other members of congress who orchestrated or otherwise voted for the sham resolution against the surge . . . .

Attacks in Baghdad down by 80%

Since the multiple bombings in Shroja market district on the 12th, Baghdad hasn’t seen any major attacks and there’s a tangible decrease in all kinds of attacks. Not only official statements say so (Defense ministry officials said today that attacks are down by 80% in Baghdad). It’s a reality I live in nowadays, at least in my neighborhood and its surroundings.
. . . .
Side by side with new security efforts is a campaign to clean and redecorate many streets, circles and parks in Baghdad. New trees are planted and damaged street medians and sidewalks are being refurbished. This offers a small yet much needed breeze of hope and normalcy to the traumatized city.

The most significant and encouraging development . . . that the total number of families that returned home is as high as 130 families across the city, including several families in the, until recently, hopelessly violent district of Hay al-Adl.

The report adds that Maliki ordered that the Bab al-Muadam and al-Shuhada bridges on the Tigris be reopened to traffic next week. This decision came in response to the “notable increase in traffic activity which in turn is a result of the growing feeling of safety”.

Confirming what we said earlier about the recovery of civilian activity, the spokesman said “most stores in the Alawi al-Hilla districts have reopened after times when this area was a scene for repeated terrorist attacks”.As the effort continues in Baghdad, four other provinces are launching simultaneous plans to support operation ‘Imposing the Law’. . .

From Iraq the Model. Perhaps the Democrats can accelerate their efforts to end this war and call it a defeat now before we actually seem to be making significant inroads to victory.

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