Sunday, May 13, 2007

The Al Qaeda End Game

I previously posted that Al Qaeda in Iraq, the group General Petraeus has identified as our most immediate opponent and the group responsble for the vast bulk of the casualties in Iraq, appears to be heading towards its final cataclysmic battles. Largely driven from Anbar and its bases in Baghdad, al Qaeda in Iraq's center of mass has shifted to Diyala Province where they are preparing Hezbollah style defenses. Further, the Sunnis in Diyala seem to be organizing against al Qaeda just as the Sunnis in Anbar have done. All of this suggests that we are nearing, if not in, the end game with Al Qaeda in Iraq. Pat Dollard analyzes the situation and comes to a similar conclusion.

Terrorists are parasites. They rely on a host body to support them. Now they can terrorize a host body into providing them support, but that will only go so far. Ultimately, the host body must be somewhat sympathetic to the terrorists, or else, by sheer dint of numbers, the members of the host body will be able to reject the terrorists. These two principles explain the entire history of Al Qaeda’s reign over Al Anbar. Al Anbar, like Al Qaeda, is a Sunni entity. The people of Al Anbar were sympathetic enough to Al Qaeda that they provided them sanctuary, support and even manpower - which is to say, the very lifeblood that this parasite required. Finally, the Sunnis of Al Anbar had enough of the bleak and empty future, and very bloody present, that comprised the entirety of Al Qaeda’s offerings. And so the host body rejected the parasite. The parasite is now in its last possible refuge, the mixed Sunni/Shiite Triangle of Death/Diyala Province, just south of Baghdad. My time in Iraq started there, and will likely end there. Along with Al Qaeda’s time.

. . . In the short term, Al Qaeda will need to reopen its supply lines from Syria, which flow through through Al Anbar. They would also love nothing more than to reestablish themselves as the masters of Al Anbar. It is critical we keep our alliance with the Al Anbar Sunni tribes intact, and deny Al Qaeda both a home and its critical supply lines. And yes, the elephant in the room cannot be ignored as well: Syria must be forced to stop feeding Al Qaeda. Al Qaeda is comprised of Jihadis from around the globe. For example, in Fallujah, I lived in a Chechen barracks. ( Fallujah is not in Russia ). During the battle of Fallujah, the Marines recovered passports from 18 different nations on the Jihadi dead. Most of Al Qaeda’s fighters come through Syria. Syria must be made to heel. Nancy Pelosi wearing scarves and whispering sweetly will not do the trick. In fact, she has only encouraged Syria and Al Qaeda to stick to their ways, to keep up the fight against us. Why should they quit when the Democrats keep promising them victory? When Pelosi lied, our soldiers died. And they still do. If we are allowed by the Leftists, the mainstream ( which is to say Leftisist ) media, and the career-coward Republican lawmakers to get tough with Syria, we can defeat Al Qaeda.

Petraeus has a three pronged agenda, whether he knows it or not, and I’m sure he does. 1. Hold Al Anbar. 2. Defeat Al Qaeda in it’s last possible home in Iraq, the Triangle of Death/Diyala area, by simultaneously attacking them aggresively and winning over the local Sunni tribes to help us in that effort - - just as we did in Al Anbar. 3. Break the back of the Shiite/Iran Baghdad to Basra insurgency by maintaining a ruthless military campaign; by further marginalizing or killing Al Sadr; by co-opting as many Shiite tribal leaders as possible; and by forcing Maliki to appropriately support us in all this; and lastly by rooting out as much evidence as possible to finalize the case against Iran.

Just like today’s story of the loss of U.S. servicemen, and the spectacular Baghdad/Diyala bombings of the last three weeks, you will continue to see many more Al Qaeda horrors. But these may just be the terrorist organization’s death throes. It is an historical maxim that every empire becomes more violent in it’s final, beleaguered days. We live with the conundrum that there is as much good news as bad in this current carnage. But it will become all bad if we let this opportunity for final conquest slip through our fingers.
Read the entire story here. Once Iraq is free of the mix of al Qaeda and Baathist insurgency that is moving swiftly towards its last major battles at the moment, it will still be a long time before Iraq is completely free of terrorism. Even after al Qaeda in Iraq is crushed - assuming the Democrats in Congress give us enough time to finish that fight - Syria and Iran both still have a vested interest in trying to prevent the formation of a stable democracy in Iraq. And both have a very long history of deadly meddling with their neighbors. Both nations will need to be addressed forcefully at some point in the future. And as to Iran, with their drive for nuclear weaponry, that point will inevitably come sooner rather then later.

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