Sunday, February 25, 2007


Hezbollah is in the midst of rearmng, compliments of Iran, and is preparing for another round of hostilities against Israel. Hezbollah now occupies the hills and valley's north of the U.N. positions on the Lebanon-Israel border from Sheba Farms and across to the sea.

It is widely suspected that Iran is the principal supplier of this hardware and that Syria is actively allowing these weapons to be transported across its borders. Hezbollah could, therefore, be in a position by this summer in which it could fire missiles over the land south of the Litani river, which is controlled by the UN force, and strike at Israeli civilians. The domestic pressure on Israel to respond by bombing would be huge.

The international tension which a fresh round of conflict here would provoke may suit the Iranian leadership. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad declared yesterday that Iran’s nuclear programme involved “no reverse gear” just as representatives of the permanent five members of the UN Security Council prepare to meet in London to discuss additional sanctions against Tehran. If past form is any indication, Iran will try to play for time by exploiting its capacity to cause trouble in Iraq, Lebanon and the Palestinian Authority. It is likely to engage in those tactics yet again.

Read the whole story and here. This was both expected and unfortunate. It may actually place Israel in a very difficult position. If Hezbollah launches rocket attacks from behind the U.N. buffer, which they surely will, Israel will be at a strategic disadvantage. They will of course be able to respond with air and indirect fire, but it would seem that a push by troops on the ground will be greatly complicated by the buffer zone and U.N. forces. I think Iran will play the Hezbollah card once again, but precisely when is the question.

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