A Tale of Two Poll(ar Opposites)

There are Lies, There are Damned Lies, and Then There Are . . . well, polls in this case. As one person recently commented, had polls been extant in thirteenth century Italy, "I’m sure Dante would have added a circle in hell reserved for those who gauge truth and rightness by taking a poll." At any rate, something is amiss. Someone is manipulating our poll data. Two polls, released within a day of each other, are producing some diametrically opposed pictures of Iraqi opinion. Now, how could that be when both claim a margin of error of less then 3%.

Compare this snippet on a Times UK "ORB" Poll - a poll that got no play in American MSM's:

[A]n opinion poll conducted on the eve of the fourth anniversary of the US-led invasion of Iraq has found a striking resilience and optimism among the inhabitants.

The poll, the biggest since coalition troops entered Iraq on March 20, 2003, shows that by a majority of two to one, Iraqis prefer the current leadership to Saddam Hussein’s regime, regardless of the security crisis and a lack of public services.

The survey, published today, also reveals that contrary to the views of many western analysts, most Iraqis do not believe they are embroiled in a civil war.

Officials in Washington and London are likely to be buoyed by the poll conducted by Opinion Research Business (ORB), a respected British market research company that funded its own survey of 5,019 Iraqis over the age of 18.

Compare that with these snippet about an "ABC BBC Poll" - that is getting play from the BBC and all US MSM's or, in other words, all who are cheerleading for the US to leave Iraq:

From the BBC

Iraqis are becoming increasingly pessimistic about the future of their country and unhappy about their lives, a survey suggests.

Less than 40% of those polled said things were good in their lives, compared to 71% two years ago.

However, a majority of those questioned said that, despite daily violence, they did not believe Iraq was in a state of civil war.

More than 2,000 people took part in the BBC/ABC News poll

From the USA Today:

Iraqis see hope drain away
After 4 years of war, survey finds a nation fragmented by fear

Jobs gone and schools closed. Marriages delayed and children mourned. Markets bombed and clean water in short supply. Speaking freely now a dangerous act.
And hope lost.

Four years after the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq, Iraqis describe daily lives that have been torn apart by spiraling violence and a faltering economy. The bursts of optimism reported in a 2004 public-opinion survey taken a year after the invasion and another in 2005 before landmark legislative elections have nearly vanished.

Face-to-face interviews with 2,212 Iraqis — a survey sponsored jointly by USA TODAY, ABC News, the British Broadcasting Corp. and ARD, a German TV network — find a nation that in large measure has fragmented into fear. Six in 10 Iraqis say their lives are going badly. Only one-third expect things to improve in the next year.

From the Washington Post:

More than six in 10 Iraqis now say that their lives are going badly -- double the percentage who said so in late 2005 -- and about half say that increasing U.S. forces in the country will make the security situation worse, according to a poll of more than 2,200 Iraqis conducted by ABC News and other media organizations.

The survey, released Monday, shows that Iraqi assessments of the quality of their lives and the future of the country have plunged in comparison with similar polling done in November 2005 and February 2004.

The Washington Post acknowledges the UK Times ORB poll, but addresses the glaring contradictions by calling the ABC-BBC Poll "more comprehensive." Hmmm, the ORB pole interviewed 3,000 more people, yet is less "comprehensive." Somehow, I have my doubts.

Obviously, there is something more then questionable going on - either questions are being manipulated or there is oversampling. Unfortunately, I do not yet know which. My intent is to get as much of the raw data that I can and see if I can identify it. I will post my findings.