Saturday, March 17, 2007

Has Al Qaeda In Iraq Made a Fatal Error?

Mohammed, the author of Iraq the Model and himself a Sunni muslim resident of Baghdad, believes that they have. I posted just below on al Qaeda attacks occurring outside of Baghdad, including three suicide bombings / chlorine gas attacks aimed at Sunni civilians and that effected over 350 people in Anbar province. The U.S. and Iraqi government are making headway in convincing Anbar's Sunni tribesman to forsake support of al Qaeda and join the government. Mohammed thinks that these attacks will put Anbar firmly in the government camp and constitute a fatal error by al Qaeda in Iraq:

With this series of dirty chemical bombings a war between al-Qaeda and the tribes in Anbar is no longer a possibility. It just became a fact.

I've read at least two very optimistic reports from al-Almada in the last week about purported victories of the tribes and police over al-Qaeda in Ramadi and Fallujah. I was reluctant to trust the accuracy of the reports which sited unnamed sources but now seeing the reaction of al-Qaeda suggests that the action of the tribes was so painful that al-Qaeda retaliated in the way we see today.

Al-Qaeda's terrorists-whom AP insists on calling insurgents-expended three suicide bombers and precious resources against their supposedly sympathetic civilian Sunni hosts instead of American and Iraqi soldiers and Shia civilians; their usual enemies.
If this indicates anything it indicates that al-Qaeda's is reprioritizing the targets on the hit list. The reason: al-Qaeda is sensing a serious threat in the change of attitude of the tribes toward them and perhaps the apparently successful meeting of the sheiks with Maliki and the agreements that were made then was the point at which open war had to be declared.

The tribes in Anbar are stubborn and they have many ruthless warriors. That's a proven fact and it looks like Al-Qaeda had just made their gravest mistake—their once best friends are just about to become their worst enemy.
Read Iraq the Model here.

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